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Tomorrow
According to the American NAR forecast, the other (other than subprime) segment
of the mortgage market that may affect the crisis in the near term, the market
is Alt-A loans, which make up today to assess the association, about 13% of all
housing Loans issued. This category between normal and high-credit.
Experts point to the individual associations signs that the crisis in the
subprime lending - in some American states have already passed its critical
point. For example, in Utah and Oregon now decreasing level of mortgage
defaults. Experts attribute this healthy strengthening of prices in the housing
market. As the price rises, the homeowners an opportunity to refinance their
loans. In addition, the rising cost of the house itself is a stimulus for its
owner to a regular payment of loans (to save him). "In order situation in
the sector lending has improved dramatically, it is necessary to reviving
housing market" - think American rieltory.
However, as reported by Kazakhstan "expert" Lawrence Yun, NAR chief
economist, he does not expect in the near future, no significant changes in thedynamics of sales in the Bad Credit Mortgage and housing market. "Sales of homes built before, inthe next two to three months will remain relatively stable… Mortgage crisis
will have a negative impact on sales in the short term, but the long-term
dynamics of the market rather positive. I think small increase in the number of
sales of houses built earlier, will take place towards the end of this year,
and by mid-2008 - the first improvement in the market and the spread of new
housing. "
Specialists NAR also suggest that as the interest rates will be reviewed by an
increasing number of loans will increase the number of homeowners without a Mortgage foreclosure, as well as the number of delays in payments of Bad Credit. According tothe calculations of experts Credit Suisse: "Pick the failure of mortgages in the United States will be in October this year. Only after that can be confidently
predict the dynamics of the financial market in the country and outside it.
" Some experts believe that the total stabilization will take several
years. Thus, Aira Reingold suggests that the number of mortgage bankruptcies
will increase dramatically over the next two to three years.
In general, analysts do not expect any serious financial crisis. John Lipski
said that, despite the fact that the ownership of banks a large number of
high-mortgage bonds, including overdue, their share in the total portfolio of
assets owned by banks is very low magnitude. A similar situation and in a more
general scale. Thus, although the total value of CDO today reaches 900 billion
dollars, it is only slightly more than 2% of the total asset value of financial market dollars and Mortgages. Recent statements by bankers support the conclusions of theIMF. Alliance & Leicester, for example, announced on June 30 that its
earnings before taxes amounted to 290 million pounds (nearly 600 million
dollars), is more than 30 million pounds higher income for the same period last
year. Manual Bank alleges that in the last six months has declined and the
proportion of high-bank mortgage loans.
The International Monetary Fund cautiously optimistic in their forecasts crisis
mortgage lending in the United States and its impact on the American economy as
a whole, as well as the prospects for world economic growth. John Lipski sure
that you do not need to exaggerate the degree of turbulence, which are
currently markets. "Fundamentals of a positive global economy is not
affected. The problems currently being experienced by the market are ratherpeculiar configuration, Remortgage, Preparation place for the next phase of the continuingdevelopment of the global economy… We believe that a comprehensive world economic
growth will continue. "
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